2 The resulting Bover-retailing^-meaning too much retail space perĬapita-is associated with substantial risks to the profitability of existing retailers In the US in 2000, compared to 10 in the UK, 9 in Japan and 7 in Switzerland (ChungĮt al. Well as bankruptcies and liquidation of leading retail chains.1Īn industry source calculates an average of 31 square feet of retail space per capita Restructuring has led inevitably to high vacancy in some shopping centers or districts, as Productivity gains in the retail sector as measured by sales per worker. Moreover, they find that entry and exit has produced large Major national chains is associated with displacement of smaller retailers such as those Maisonneuve Boulevard West, Montreal, Quebec H3G 1M8, Canadaĭepartment of Finance & Center for Real Estate and Urban Economics St udies, School of BusinessĪdministration, University of Connecticut, 2500 Stadium Way, Storrs, CT 06269-1041RE, USAĮstablishment level data from the decade ending in 1997 to show that the growth of of Finance, John Molson School of Business, Concordia University, 1455 de In the US, major retailers such as Wal-Mart, Target and wholesale club chains haveĮxpanded aggressively over the past 25 years, leading enormous growth of retail spaceĪnd associated entry and exit of retail establishments. Keywords Localization economies vs competition. We demonstrate out-of-sample predictive accuracy. Retail cluster: risks associated with opening a new anchor and with closures of existingĪnchors. We develop a new tool for evaluating risks to any existing Same type anchors and localization benefits (different type) associated with comparison New findings include the trade-off between competition from Probabilities are evaluated from the perspective of a given type of anchor classified as Model (CLM) estimates the odds that a given location will be chosen over a competitor. A probit model with location fixedĮffects estimates opening and closing probabilities over time and a conditional logit Probabilities of anchors at a given time and location. This paper estimates discrete choice models of opening and closing # Springer Science+Business Media New York 2015Ībstract The US retail industry has undergone enormous restructuring resulting inĬonstruction of new retail space, abandonment of nearby space, bankruptcies, mergersĪnd acquisitions. Predicting Risks of Anchor Store Openings and Closings
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